BTC Could Drop to $17.5K or Even $11.4K: Crypto Strategist

• Bitcoin (BTC) could fall further after correcting by over 15% from its 2023 high
• Crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen says the current crypto downturn is in line with a pattern that occurs every four years
• Historical precedent suggests BTC could drop as low as $17,500 or even $11,400

Bitcoin Drop Could Be Inevitable

Crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen has warned that Bitcoin (BTC) could fall further even after correcting by over 15% from its 2023 high. Cowen believes this is due to the S&P 500 stock index’s tendency to experience a correction in August/September of pre-election years – as it has done already this year. This would follow a pattern that has occurred every four years since 2011.

Patterns From Previous Years

Cowen points out that previous “secondary scares” have seen BTC drop between 39% and 83%. For example, in 2019 once the secondary scare began, BTC dropped another 61%, while in 2015 it dropped around 40%. The most drastic decline was seen in 2011 when there was an 82.5% drop before bottoming out.

How Low Could Bitcoin Fall?

If we look at historical precedent, Cowen estimates that if there is a similar 40% drop to 2015 then BTC could go as low as $17,500. If the decline is similar to 2019 where there was a 61% drop then it could reach $11,400. The most extreme scenario would be an 80% fall which he does not believe will happen but would put BTC much lower than these numbers. At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $26,423.

Secondary Scare Playing Out Now

Cowen believes the current crypto downturn corresponds with a “secondary scare” based on the S&P 500’s correction this August/September – which has seen it fall around 5%. He suggests investors should watch for Bitcoin dropping below its 20-week moving average for more confirmation of such a trend continuing and potentially leading to further drops in price.


Crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen warns of the possibility of further declines in Bitcoin’s price due to patterns seen historically every four years during pre-election years in the S&P 500 stock index. Looking at previous drops between 39%-83%, Cowen estimates Bitcoin could go as low as $17,500 or even $11,400 depending on how deep any corrections are this year. Investors should watch out for confirmation from drops below its 20-week moving average before taking any action accordingly